INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Mirra Andreeva beat Aryna Sabalenka 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the Indian Wells women’s singles final Sunday.
The No. 9 seed prevailed over the No. 1 seed in an at-times nail-biting match, ultimately decided by Andreeva’s poise, Sabalenka’s changing fortunes at the net and a remarkable break-point save,
It is Andreeva’s second successive WTA 1,000 title in a remarkable 2025, which has taken her inside the top 10 and sent a signal to the WTA Tour that she is a force to be reckoned with.
The Athletic’s tennis writers, Charlie Eccleshare and Matt Futterman, analyze the final and what it means for tennis.
How did Andreeva’s break-point record against Sabalenka affect her?
There are two ways to interpret missed break points.
Glass half-full: A player knows they are putting pressure on their opponent. Keep at it and eventually they will get one.
Glass half-empty: They blew their chance, and they might not get another one. The first looks forward. The other looks back.
Andreeva appeared to dig herself a hole in the third game of the match by getting stuck on the half-empty mindset. She worked to create four chances to grab an early lead on the world No. 1, who had come out shaky and nervous. Sabalenka was missing on big strokes, her legs not finding the next gear.
Andreeva was on the front foot, and when she had a meatball second serve to take a cut at for the service break, she took it. He tried to knife a backhand down the line, the shot that had carried her through the tournament. She mishit it just wide and let out a yell. It was her 13th break-point chance against Sabalenka in 2025; she had squandered all of them.
Tennis, though, is about what comes next and about how players react to adversity. Andreeva didn’t react well. From there, her strokes became loose and the errors started to float in. A bad drop shot allowed Sabalenka to stuff a winner that caused some pain. Sabalenka, nine years Andreeva’s senior, could see what was happening and came alive.
She won 11 of 12 points, including breaking Andreeva at love in the game after Andreeva had missed her chances. The whole stretch lasted about four minutes, but it was all Sabalenka needed to take control of the first set.
By the time Andreeva did break Sabalenka’s serve in the third game of the second set, she had gone 0-18. The 19th time proved the charm.
Matt Futterman
How did Andreeva recover in the second set?
If the first set hinged on the break points Andreeva missed, the second was decided by one she saved.
Up 3-2, having finally broken the Sabalenka serve after taking her ninth break point of the day, it looked as though Andreeva was about to be reeled back in. But facing a second break point of the game, Andreeva produced one of the most extraordinary shots of the year so far — especially given what was at stake.
Sabalenka thought she had the point won when she hit an angled forehand drop shot with so much sidespin that Andreeva was taken halfway into the tramlines. Andreeva somehow not only retrieved the ball, but produced an even more devastating angle of her own, sending the ball across the court and onto the outside edge of the line as a disbelieving Sabalenka watched it travel past her, almost in stages.
MIRRA ANDREEVA WHAT A GETTTT 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XduLnMoZFT
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) March 16, 2025
Andreeva was developing a taste for the spectacular, and produced a string of spectacular drop shots as she closed the set out. There were two in the space of a few points to hold for 5-3, taking away Sabalenka’s rhythm by keeping her guessing.
It’s a pretty frazzling combination when your opponent can produce drop shot winners out of nothing and chase down yours from almost off the court. Even for a world No. 1.
Mirra Andreeva’s tennis IQ and variety brought her back into the match. (Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)
Charlie Eccleshare
How did Sabalenka blunt one of Andreeva’s best defenses?
It’s often forgotten that Sabalenka is a former doubles world No. 1 and a two-time Grand Slam doubles champion, but when she is up at the net swatting away volleys, it makes sense.
Such is her dominance from the baseline that she rarely needs to enter the forecourt, but the variety she has added to her game in the past year has made her an even more formidable opponent, and a player of Andreeva’s calibre requires the world No. 1 to reach a little deeper into her toolbox.
The first-set scoreline was comfortable in the end, but it was Andreeva making the early running and the world No. 1 sensed that simply blasting the ball from the back of the court probably wasn’t going to cut it. During her runs to the title in Dubai, United Arab Emirates and the final in California, Andreeva had showcased her incredible forehand-slice squash shot, which buys her time on points and can create problems when it bounces, skidding and curving through the court.
In response, Sabalenka started mixing things up and taking the ball out of the air before it became a problem. Facing the first of four break points serving at 1-1. she knifed a low backhand volley for a winner to keep Andreeva at bay.
Aryna Sabalenka used her volleys to prevent Mirra Andreeva from staying in points. (Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)
Sabalenka saved the second one after setting the point up with a big drive volley, and in her next service game a successful serve-volley play at 15-15 took Andreeva by surprise.
A half-volley winner a couple of games later underlined how well Sabalenka seemed to be feeling the ball. She rammed that home by earning a first set point at 5-2 on Andreeva’s serve with a feathered backhand drop shot.
Sabalenka hit a few more excellent volleys in the second and third sets, but she found it harder to get to the net to execute them. Andreeva started picking Sabalenka’s kick serves better, taking them out of the air and rushing the world No.1; she also used moon balls to good effect to keep Sabalenka penned on the baseline.
Charlie Eccleshare
Why Andreeva’s tennis has sent shockwaves through the WTA Tour
Regardless of Sunday’s result, Andreeva has sent shivers through the tennis world with her performances the past month.
In Dubai, she became the youngest winner of a 1,000 level tournament — just below a Grand Slam — since the format started in 2009. She is the youngest player to appear in the final of Indian Wells since Kim Clijsters in 2001.
Those are pretty astounding notches to have on the belt, especially for a player who seems so far away from being a complete product. There’s little doubt that she can get much stronger in every department and she is already inside the WTA top 10. She’s now hitting 126mph first serves that have even surprised her, adding the ability to dictate and create aggressive situations from all over the court to her already formidable variety and defense.
She’s learning how to use her creativity, too. Her coach, Conchita Martinez, said this week that Andreeva could barely hit a slice backhand when they started last spring.
And then there’s her brain, which pivots between maturity and frazzle sometimes from game to game, but has carried her over so many lines in 2025. She’s just learning how to steady it. When that becomes rote, watch out. She hasn’t done this in a Grand Slam yet, but there’s no reason to think she can’t.
As Sabalenka said in a news conference the other day: “I’m 26 and 27 this year, and she’s 17 and is just two years older than my sister. I look at my sister as a kid. You know, I remember her being this little baby. So I look at Mirra and think, ‘Oh, my god, I’m so old.’
“Yeah, that’s just crazy.”
Matt Futterman
What did Mirra Andreeva say after the final?
We’ll bring your their on-court quotes and news conference reflections as they come in.
What did Aryna Sabalenka say after the final?
We’ll bring your their on-court quotes and news conference reflections as they come in.
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(Top photo: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
