How will 2025 NFL Draft be impacted by first wave of free agency?

It was a wild start to NFL free agency, as the usual flurry of impact signings (and re-signings) shared headlines with several intriguing trades.

Plenty of free agents remain unsigned, but with the first wave of moves out of the way, let’s turn our attention back to the 2025 NFL Draft. How has all that’s happened early in the offseason impacted what we can expect come April?

Draft expert Nick Baumgardner and national college football writer Scott Dochterman break it down.

1. Teams have been aggressive pursuing quarterbacks, be it via trade (Geno Smith) or big-money contracts (Sam Darnold). Does that tell us anything about the 2025 NFL Draft QB class?

Nick Baumgardner: We’ve talked and written about this since August — this quarterback class isn’t as bad as the 2022 class, but it’s not that much better. There really isn’t anyone who’s even close to being a no-doubter in this group. Cam Ward, who was viewed as a Day 2 pick at best when the season began, has emerged as the clear QB1. But he’s a former Wing-T quarterback who’s only been throwing like this for about five years. There are huge risks, even for a player with Ward’s talent.

I don’t think any of these quarterbacks would’ve gone in front of J.J. McCarthy or Bo Nix (QB5 and QB6, respectively) last year. And though it’s certainly possible Ward hears his name called in the top three, the best I can give you is that he’s a top-20 player in this class. Shedeur Sanders, meanwhile, is probably a top-30 player — it wouldn’t shock me if Sanders fell into the second round.

There is depth in the class, though, which the 2022 version didn’t have. Tyler Shough, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, Kyle McCord and even Riley Leonard are talented athletes who will have a chance to hang around a while.

Scott Dochterman: Absolutely. Ward has established himself as the top quarterback entering the draft and is likely the No. 1 pick, but there are a ton of question marks with the other quarterbacks. Opinions are mixed about Sanders — he has first-round talent, but uncertainty lingers about whether he could lead a team as a rookie. Perhaps Dart could fit that role, in time.

The rest of the class doesn’t have a quarterback guaranteed to become a starter in 2025 – or ever. Shough has that type of potential but comes with an injury history. The same could be said, perhaps, about Texas’ Quinn Ewers. But if a general manager risks his career by drafting any quarterback (other than Ward) to start right away, he’d better secure an extension before the draft.

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Louisville QB Tyler Shough letting it fly 🎯

📺: #NFLCombine on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/qvD2cFDw8Z

— NFL (@NFL) March 2, 2025

2. Aside from the quarterbacks, what’s been the most impactful signing so far, relative to how it might impact the draft?

Dochterman: More than one specific signing — a trio of moves have changed Chicago’s entire focus come draft season. The Bears gave up 68 sacks last year, so signing a free-agent offensive lineman or two was always part of GM Ryan Poles’ plan. But in trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, plus signing center Drew Dalman, Poles reworked the Bears’ greatest weakness into a solid unit.

Before the trades, Chicago was in the market for an offensive lineman at No. 10. Poles still might select one, just no longer based on need. The Bears could pivot instead to running back Ashton Jeanty or whoever Poles deems as the best player available. That’s a much healthier position for the franchise, which made it a priority this offseason to protect franchise quarterback Caleb Williams.

Baumgardner: We saw some interesting offensive tackle contracts and, as usual, a ton of edge defenders got paid. A bunch of high-end edge defenders also took one-year prove-it deals, though, and all of those developments reflect how teams feel about the depth of the OT and edge classes in this draft.

Defensive tackle is obviously the deepest position in this draft, but edge lacks sizzle pretty much throughout the whole stack. Even Abdul Carter, the hands-down top edge prospect, is dealing with a foot injury. The buzz surrounding James Pearce Jr. away from the field hasn’t been great. Mykel Williams is a freaky guy, but he was hurt a lot at Georgia. Mike Green, maybe the most talented athlete of the bunch, has had to address prior off-field issues. Shemar Stewart is an elite athlete, but his production will give many pause. We could go on and on.

The tackle class is wobbly compared to what we saw last year, too. So, when we see the Titans sign Dan Moore for $82 million over four years and the Chiefs give Jaylon Moore $30 million over two, it should be obvious what those teams think about the incoming rookie group’s ability to provide immediate help. The top three OTs in this class (Will Campbell, Armand Membou and Josh Simmons) all come with question marks. Teams that didn’t address tackle last year are going to feel it.

3. Based on what we’ve seen so far, is there a position the league as a whole seems to be waiting to address in the draft?

Dochterman: That’s definitely the case at running back, and most teams should wait this year. Of the running backs deals in free agency, only three are for longer than one year (and those were two years in length).

This draft is loaded at running back. I’ve compared Jeanty to Edgerrin James, Omarion Hampton to Ezekiel Elliott and Kaleb Johnson to David Johnson — if those prospects pan out, that’s three potential Pro Bowlers. Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo and the Ohio State duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson also should be NFL starters, perhaps as early as this coming season. There are others who can fill at least rotational roles.

Those are much cheaper options than signing veterans with baggage and mileage.

Top 40 yard dash MPH: Running Backs

1. Rocket Sanders: 23.55
2. TreVeyon Henderson: 23.38
3. Jaydon Blue: 23.19
4. Brashard Smith: 23.10
5. RJ Harvey: 22.93
6. Bhaysul Tuten: 22.86
7. Jarquez Hunter: 22.79
8. Omarion Hampton: 22.70
9. Montrell Johnson: 22.65
10. Trevor Etienne: 22.54

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner.bsky.social) March 1, 2025 at 1:42 PM

Baumgardner: This is the anti-positional value draft — so, running back, tight end, linebacker and even safety.

Scott mentioned all the running back depth (don’t be surprised if multiple players at that position go in the first round), but I’ve really liked this tight end class for a while — and not just at the top, with Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland. LSU’s Mason Taylor is an outstanding three-down TE prospect with some Sam LaPorta to him, Miami’s Elijah Arroyo has his share of Kyle Pitts flashes, and Oregon’s Terrance Ferguson had a terrific combine and Senior Bowl. All that, and I haven’t even mentioned Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr.

There are also more than a few high-end safeties. South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori is arguably the best athlete in the draft and easily could go in the top 20, while Georgia’s Malaki Starks is a playmaker and Penn State’s Kevin Winston Jr., Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts and even Texas’ Andrew Mukuba all could hear their names called in the top 75.

4. Are there any other big dominoes — free agency or trade — you expect to fall in the coming days that would create a shift in the 2025 NFL Draft outlook?

Baumgardner: There are still a few really talented free-agent receivers out there, and (not unlike the offensive tackles) this is a bit of a middling WR class. I’m very curious to see how many teams wait on that position this year.

If the 2024 college football season showed us anything, it’s that the country’s truly elite receiver talent isn’t even draft-eligible yet — the 2026 group could be better, and the 2027 class might be historically good.

Dochterman: Obviously, Aaron Rodgers’ landing spot will impact his future employer’s draft plans. But I’ll go with the future of Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson here, and whether he stays with the Bengals or ends up getting traded.

The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported this week that one NFL GM said the Bengals’ demands for Hendrickson were “ridiculous.” But edge rushers with 17.5 sacks, like Hendrickson had a year ago, don’t move without interested teams investing some serious capital. If Cincinnati trades the NFL’s 2024 sacks leader, the Bengals will need to replace him early in the draft. The domino effect could include another trade or two to ensure Cincinnati gets the edge rusher it wants.

Of course, if Cincinnati keeps Hendrickson, the Bengals would appear to be wide open at No. 17, at multiple positions.

(Top photo of Cam Ward: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)