UCLA had a solid debut season in the Big Ten with a 13-7 conference record, but it has been a streaky season for the Bruins. They had a four-game losing streak in January and then followed that up with seven straight wins. UCLA enters Thursday’s first-round NCAA Tournament game against Utah State having gone just 4-4 in its last eight games, though. Will the Aggies pick up a quality win for the Mountain West?
We’ve got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
How to watch UCLA vs. Utah State
- What: Midwest Regional, first round
- Venue: Rupp Arena — Lexington, Ky.
- Time: 9:25 p.m. ET, Thursday
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: Max, March Madness Live app
- Watching in-person? Get tickets on StubHub.
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No. 7 UCLA Bruins
Strengths: The Westwood crew packs a considerable punch when possessing the rock. UCLA ranked in the top five in a myriad of offensive categories in Big Ten play and entered the postseason No. 24 in adjusted offensive efficiency in its past seven games at a potent 1.208 points per possession. The Bruins converted a ridiculous 40.4 percent on 3-pointers over the regular season’s last month. Overall, bombers Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark each shot at least 38 percent from deep. The emergence of 7-foot-3 Spaniard Aidy Mara added much needed balance down the stretch. He’s a major reason why UCLA slotted inside the top 75 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage over the last 30 days of the regular season. Outstandingly, they also forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions over that span.
Weaknesses: Mick Cronin’s club does apply disruptive pressure, but overall, its defense is somewhat substandard. During the regular season’s final month, it ranked only No. 175 in effective field goal percentage D. Again, Mara’s presence helped, but at No. 203 in 2-point percentage defense on the season, opponents often attacked the rim with measurable success. Free-throw shooting is another noticeable concern. During the regular season, John Wooden U converted just 70.5 percent from the charity stripe, ranking No. 241 in the nation. Generating whistles and manufacturing points on freebies aren’t the Bruins’ strongsuits, and that will be problematic in tight affairs.
Outlook: UCLA mostly performed well in its inaugural Big Ten season. The program’s rich history and brand name will attract bracket novices, but its defensive shortcomings likely cap its potential. Mara has boosted the Bruins’ interior play, but when they’re matched against teams with a formidable frontcourt, Cronin is bound to be shouting expletives. The mid-seed has second-weekend upside. If it advances beyond that, Bill Walton will ride high on Cloud Nine above.
—Brad Evans
No. 10 Utah State Aggies
Strengths: Jerrod Calhoun developed a reputation at Youngstown State for being an innovative offensive mind, and while that has certainly traveled with him to Logan, a coach doesn’t have to be all that creative with talents like Mason Falslev and Ian Martinez on the roster. Falslev is a first-team, all-league talent who may be the most well-rounded player in the Mountain West, while Martinez is an explosive scorer who is capable of going for 20-plus any given night. While those two make the Aggies offense hum, what makes them a top-20 offense in America is the balance and role allocation. Drake Allen is perfectly happy being a table-setter. Aubin Gateretse, a 6-foot-11 senior, knows his job is to be big and take up space in the lane. Isaac Johnson excels as the floor-spacing five, while Dexter Akanno and Tucker Anderson aren’t shy to let the 3-pointers fly either.
Weaknesses: Utah State’s weakness is on the defensive end of the floor. The Aggies rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and are seventh in the category in the 11-team Mountain West. They struggle to defend the paint, rank in the bottom half nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and tend to be a little foul-happy. Part of the reason is they play 70 percent of their defensive possessions in zone, which can be a curse against teams that can make 3s, pass well and get to the offensive glass.
Outlook: The zone can also take opponents out of a rhythm and make them uncomfortable. Utah State’s zone — a hybrid somewhere between a 2-3 and a 1-1-3 — does exactly that because it’s unique. That zone and Falslev’s super-human anticipation are why the Aggies force turnovers on more than 20 percent of their defensive possessions, and those turnovers are why they are one of the best teams in transition. There certainly are ways the Aggies can be exploited, but this is not a team to take lightly.
—Rob Dauster
UCLA vs. Utah State odds
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