Big Ten’s March Sadness: A 25-year absence from the men’s basketball mountaintop

INDIANAPOLIS — Sam Dekker sobbed in front of his locker as reporters and staffers attempted to console him close to midnight April 6, 2015. His Wisconsin teammates struggled to explain how the Badgers, perhaps the best Big Ten men’s basketball team of the last 25 years, let a 9-point lead over Duke with 13 minutes remaining in the national title game evaporate in a 68-63 defeat.

That Wisconsin squad represented one of the Big Ten’s best chances at ending a conference-wide title drought that has since extended to eight consecutive championship game defeats, most recently Purdue’s loss to UConn in April. Not since Michigan State won it all in 2000 has a Big Ten member celebrated at the end of the tournament-capping “One Shining Moment” montage. In the same quarter century, Big East teams have won eight titles (nine if you count UConn’s 2014 title as a member of the American Athletic Conference), and ACC representatives have eight (including current Big Ten member Maryland’s 2002 win against Indiana). No other league has lost more than three title games over that time.

“The Big Ten has had some unfortunate matchups, Purdue being the latest of that,” said Fox/NBC college basketball analyst Robbie Hummel, who was an All-American at Purdue in 2010 and 2012. “You run into UConn, and I just don’t think anybody was going to beat them after seeing the way they played. And you can make the argument about Michigan and Villanova (in 2018), and you can make the argument about Ohio State and Florida (in 2007).”

The annual disappointment is not exclusive to the national title game. From 2021 to 2023, 26 teams represented the Big Ten in the NCAA Tournament, but only one advanced to the Elite Eight, and just four reached the Sweet 16. When Indianapolis served as the exclusive hub for the 2021 tourney in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic — a major geographic advantage considering the Big Ten had held its conference tournament there the previous week — the league accounted for four No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. Only one of its nine teams made the second weekend. In 2023, Purdue lost to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson, becoming the second top seed ever to go down in Round 1.

No. 1 seed Indiana’s loaded 2013 roster, with Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo, inexplicably froze against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone in the Sweet 16. Michigan’s 2014 roster was deeper than its 2013 national runner-up squad but lost in the Elite Eight to Kentucky and the Wildcats’ dynamite freshman class. Despite regularly rotating only six players, Ohio State won 30-plus games in 2011 and 2012 only to suffer 2-point defeats to Kentucky (Sweet 16) and Kansas (Final Four).

There’s been some plain bad luck along the way, too. In 2019, Purdue guard Carsen Edwards averaged nearly 35 points in four NCAA games and dropped 42, including 10 3-pointers, in the Boilermakers’ Elite Eight matchup with Virginia, but the Cavaliers produced an improbable buzzer-beater off a missed free throw, won in overtime and went on to win the national championship.

But 2010 Purdue was dealt the cruelest blow of all. Sitting No. 3 in the nation with an elite roster and a 10-game winning streak, the Boilers were a legitimate title contender until Hummel tore his ACL in late February. Without Hummel, a second-team All-American, the Boilermakers still tied for the Big Ten regular-season title, advanced to the Sweet 16 and finished 29-6. But, like every other Big Ten program since 2000, they were left with a hypothetical, not a crown.

“We definitely had a team that could have made it there,” Hummel said. “We had beaten four teams in the top 10: two of them on the road, one on a neutral site, two were Final Four teams in Michigan State and West Virginia. But we never got the chance, which is probably worse than losing. You don’t even get to try.

“It’s just been kind of an unfortunate path since Michigan State won it last.”

The many twists of that unfortunate path — matchups, injuries, officiating, random chance — have added up for the only power conference that has been held without a title in its current players’ lifetimes.

Tough matchups

From personnel to coaching, it’s almost impossible to find a season when the Big Ten’s national championship finalist had an advantage over its opponent. Of those eight NCAA title game appearances, the Big Ten representative was the betting underdog seven times (Duke-Wisconsin was a pick ’em). Seven of the Big Ten’s eight opponents had a higher KenPom Net Rating, which evaluates offensive and defensive efficiency based on points per 100 possessions. Only twice was the Big Ten team ranked higher in the final regular-season Associated Press poll.

“You have to be really good, but you have to be lucky,” said Wisconsin coach Greg Gard, who was a Badgers assistant in 2015.

Every Big Ten finalist was ranked no lower than fourth by the AP. All of them were No. 1 seeds, and five of their eight losses came by more than two scores. Only once did the Big Ten team shoot for a higher percentage, and only twice did it outrebound the opponent.

“Defense always gives you a chance,” said Bruce Weber, who led Illinois to its 2005 title appearance, later coached Kansas State and now works as an analyst for Big Ten Network. “But when you get against these great teams, you’ve got to be able to score the basketball.”

The Big Ten’s list of runners-up includes basketball-first programs like Purdue, Illinois and Indiana along with football schools like Michigan and Ohio State. Current and future Hall of Fame coaches Tom Izzo, Bo Ryan, John Beilein and Matt Painter have lost NCAA championships to all-time greats Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski, Rick Pitino and Jay Wright. The Boilermakers (2024) and Buckeyes (2007) fell to teams on the way to a second straight national title.

The eight Big Ten runners-up produced a total of 22 NBA Draft picks, including 15 first-rounders. Their opponents had 37 NBA picks, including 24 first-rounders. In the two games decided by 5 points (2005 Illinois-North Carolina, 2015 Wisconsin-Duke), the Big Ten teams combined for four first-rounders and two second-round picks, and their ACC opponents totaled five first-round selections and three second-rounders.

Those disadvantages start with recruiting. From 2009 through 2023, Big Ten schools landed just seven top-10 prospects based on 247Sports Composite rankings, and only one was a guard (Indiana’s Romeo Langford in 2018). In that span, Chicago and the Twin Cities produced eight top 10 players, including Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker, Jahlil Okafor and Jalen Suggs, and none of them chose a Big Ten program. Duke, Kentucky and Gonzaga were the primary beneficiaries.

“There is no doubt the star power, the guard play, the styles of play, I definitely think were probably a factor,” Weber said. “When I was in the Big 12, we had better guard play. We probably had better athletes.

“It’s always said that you win in March with guards, and I think that is a big factor.”

In nearly every championship matchup, the Big Ten’s opponent had better backcourts. In perhaps the one game where the Big Ten had a talent advantage, Michigan and all-everything guard Trey Burke led Louisville by 12 points in their 2013 finale. But the Cardinals weren’t exactly paupers with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, and Louisville prevailed 82-76.

“Maybe it’s negligible there,” Hummel said. “I do think when you look at where a lot of the elite guards have gone, it’s the Big 12, it’s the SEC and it’s the upper echelon of the ACC. … In those single-elimination one-offs, the talent a lot of the time wins out.”

Villanova’s 2018 squad was a juggernaut, ranking No. 1 in KenPom’s Net Rating. Michigan was solid, but the Wildcats overwhelmed it in every facet in a 79-62 rout led by national player of the year Jalen Brunson. Donte DiVincenzo scored 31 points off the bench for Villanova, which produced five NBA Draft picks to Michigan’s two.

“I don’t think anybody knew there were that many pros on the court that night,” said Jess Settles, who played at Iowa from 1993 to 1999 and is now a national basketball analyst with Fox, BTN and other networks. “I was in the BTN studios that night. I called (West Virginia coach and former Creighton assistant) Darian DeVries. I knew he had their scout many times. He was like, this Brunson kid is gonna post up extended and just kill them. He knew they wouldn’t be able to handle him. And he was right.”

Foul trouble

Of the eight Big Ten finalists, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan were left with the most what-ifs when it came to officiating. After taking a 9-point lead against Duke in 2015, the Badgers were whistled for eight of the next 11 fouls. The game was called tighter over the final 12 minutes than in the previous 28, leaving Wisconsin players and coaches frustrated then and now.

Wisconsin led the nation in fewest fouls per game that year at 12.5. The Badgers were called for nine in the final 12:33.

“These guys played 30-some games that way,” Ryan said practically through gritted teeth after the game. “It’s just unfortunate that this one had to be played out that way.”

With Michigan trailing Louisville by 3 points and 5:09 left in the 2013 championship, Siva seemingly had a wide-open layup in transition until Burke rejected him at the rim. Burke never touched Siva on the blocked shot, but he was whistled for a foul. Wolverines fans consider the resulting momentum shift as costly as the free throws the call provided Louisville.

The officiating in the Illinois-North Carolina title game in 2005 was perhaps even more controversial. In what was considered an even matchup in the post between future NBA Draft picks, Illinois center James Augustine fouled out in nine minutes of action without scoring a point. His counterpart Sean May scored 26 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and earned the Final Four’s most outstanding player award.

“I still walk through O’Hare or Midway (airports) every week, and when somebody asks me about the game, most of it’s about the officials,” Weber said. “Our backup center (Jack Ingram) played the most minutes of his career in the national championship game and took an engineering exam during the day because his engineering professor didn’t care that it was the national championship. He was given the test in St. Louis.”

Records reflect teams’ conference memberships at the time of their national title. 

March memories

None of these Big Ten teams celebrated with confetti swirling inside the arena, but a few had unforgettable NCAA moments and lifelong memories that temper their disappointment. In 2005’s regional final, Illinois rallied from a 15-point deficit inside of four minutes to play to force overtime and beat Arizona 90-89. The 2015 Badgers gained revenge for a last-second Final Four loss to Kentucky the previous year by ruining the Wildcats’ bid for a perfect season inside a jam-packed Lucas Oil Stadium to reach the championship.

“It was the journey with that group,” Gard said. “I think that always hurts more than one game. It’s the fact that how long you’ve been climbing that mountain, and now you don’t get to climb anymore.

“Because of the era we’re in today, I think it makes it even more special.”

Fifteen Big Ten teams have reached the Final Four since 2000, but there’s a respect that ties the programs that fall short. At the 2015 Final Four, after Izzo’s Spartans left the court following a loss to Duke, Michigan State’s marching band played “On Wisconsin” as the Badgers took the floor against Kentucky.

“I thought some of those years we beat the s— out of ourselves because our league was so physical and wore down,” Izzo said.

This year, eight Big Ten teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament, with Michigan State earning the highest seed, No. 2 in the East Region. Since 2000, the Spartans have reached one other NCAA title game in 2009, losing 89-72 to North Carolina. Izzo, the winningest coach in Big Ten history, also took Michigan State to the Final Four in 1999, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019.

When Izzo recalls his missed opportunities, he’s not hung up on the Final Four defeats. He immediately talks about the teams that didn’t even get that far. He thought his 2020 squad, led by guard Cassius Winston, was on the right path before the pandemic canceled the NCAA Tournament. Izzo was even more bullish on his 2014 squad, one of the many Big Ten teams that came close to that elusive title over the last 25 years only to fall short.

“We’ve got a 9-point lead on Connecticut in the Elite Eight,” Izzo said. “I think we could have won it that year. Then they beat us, and they go on to win it.

“I wish I had some better answers.”

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Elsa, Streeter Lecka, Jamie Squire / Getty Images)